So, firstly thanks to the smAsh teAm. You have been instrumental in the continuation of our content! The most recent CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have yet to be resolved in terms of trajectory (best guess is that they’ll all miss to Earth’s west). We’ve been looking at available coronagraph data, and here’s the NOAA bulletin about most recent events!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2022 Jan 20 1230 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached high levels following an M5\/1f flare (R2-moderate\nradio blackouts) at 20\/0601 UTC from Region 2929 (N08W79, Dao\/beta).\nAlso associated with this flare was a 10 cm radio burst (340 sfu), a\nType II (est. speed 359 km\/s) radio sweep, and a Type IV radio sweep.\nThis region didn't appear to change much, but foreshortening is now\ninhibiting an accurate analysis of its magnetic complexity. Region 2930\n(N22W80, Dao\/beta) was mostly unchanged (also foreshortened), but did\nproduce B-flare activity. Region 2933 (S22W42, Cao\/beta) showed signs of\ndecay in its trailer and was absent of significant flaring. Region 2927\n(S20W73, Axx\/alpha) was unremarkable and quiet. New Region 2934 (S24E77,\nHsx\/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was quiet and stable.\n\nThe CME associated with the M1\/Sf flare on 18\/1744 UTC was analyzed and\ndetermined to have a possible glancing blow at Earth. CME passage is\nlikely to occur on 22 Jan based on the speed and trajectory of the\nejecta.\n\nThe CME associated with the M5\/1f flare was analyzed with initial\nfindings indicating a trajectory well west of Earth. Additional analysis\nmay be accomplished to confirm these results.\n\nA third CME was observed in STEREO coronagraph imagery beginning at\napproximately 20\/0853 UTC. Initial indications show the CME was\nassociated with coronal dimming that occurred near Region 2933 at\napproximately 20\/0800 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as more imagery\nbecomes available.\n\n\n.Forecast...\nSolar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely\nand a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio\nblackouts) on 20-21 Jan due to the flare history of Region 2929. By 22\nJan, activity should return to very low levels as Region 2929 rotates\naround the western limb.\n\n\nEnergetic Particles\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak\nflux of 3,170 pfu at 19\/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux\nreached S1-Minor storm levels following the M5\/1f flare mentioned above.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on\n20-22 Jan due to CH HSS\/CME influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton\nflux is expected to be at S1-Minor storm levels before returning to\nbackground levels on 21-22 Jan.\n\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of waning CME and CH HSS influence\ninfluence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 590 km\/s, then\ndecreased to average near 500 km\/s. Total field strength was at 5 nT or\nbelow, while Bz had no significant southward deviations throughout the\nperiod. Phi was variable, but trended more in a negative orientation the\nlatter half of the period.\n\n.Forecast...\nAn enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated throughout the\nforecast period as combined CH HSS and CME effects taper on 20-21 Jan.\nAn additional enhancement is possible on 22 Jan as weak, glancing blow\neffects arrive from the 18 Jan CME.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field returned to mostly quiet to unsettled levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for\nthe remainder of 20 Jan and into 21 Jan as combined CH HSS\/CME influence\nsteadily weakens. Quiet to unsettled levels should persist on 22 Jan as\nweak effects from the 18 Jan CME arrive.<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"So, firstly thanks to the smAsh teAm. You have been instrumental in the continuation of our content! The most recent CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have yet to be resolved in terms of trajectory (best guess is that they’ll all miss to Earth’s west). We’ve been looking at available coronagraph data, and here’s the NOAA bulletin … Read moreLots of Things Have Happened<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","pmpro-has-access"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3033\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}