{"id":2558,"date":"2021-12-23T00:01:16","date_gmt":"2021-12-23T05:01:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/?p=2558"},"modified":"2021-12-23T00:01:21","modified_gmt":"2021-12-23T05:01:21","slug":"quite-a-forecast-indeed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/2021\/12\/23\/quite-a-forecast-indeed\/","title":{"rendered":"Quite a Forecast, Indeed!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\">Product: Forecast Discussion\nIssued: 2021 Dec 23 0030 UTC\nPrepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction\nCenter\n\nSolar Activity\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar activity reached moderate levels with an isolated M-class flare.\nThere were nine sunspot groups present on the visible disk. The main\nhighlights were: NOAA\/SWPC Region 2918 (N20E52, Cro\/beta) was assigned\nto a newly emerged group that was magnetically simple and inactive.\nRegion 2907 (S21W50, Eai\/beta-gamma) continued to decay in some areas\nand grow in others. The region produced occasional C-class flares, to\ninclude a C8\/1n at 22\/1808 UTC. Region 2908 (S20W39, Dai\/beta-gamma)\nconsolidated in areas and gained some mixed polarity spots. The region\nremained unstable and was the source of optical flares and C-class\nactivity; to include an M1\/1n at 22\/0706 UTC. Region 2909 (S21W26,\nHsx\/alpha) changed little and was mostly stable.\n\nNo clearly discernible, new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in\navailable coronagraph imagery, to include in association with the M1\nflare today. However, there did appear to possibly be a very faint, slow\nsignature with a southwest vector, so analysis of this event continues.\n\nAnalysis of yesterday's (21 Dec) C4 flare associated, faint CME\ncontinues. However, initial indications are there could be an\nEarth-directed component. Final analysis and modelling of this event are\npending.\n\n.Forecast...\nLow solar activity levels are expected, with a chance for M-class flares\n(R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance of X-class\n(R3; Strong radio blackout) 23-25 Dec.\n\nEnergetic Particle\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of\n1,190 pfu at 22\/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained\nbackground levels.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels\nagain on 23 Dec in response to CH HSS influences. Possible glancing blow\nCME arrival (from 20 Dec) is anticipated to decrease levels back to\nnormal to moderate on 24 Dec and remain at those levels on 25 Dec. The\ngreater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background\n23-25 Dec, with a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) radiation storm due to\nthe favorable position and flare probabilities of Regions 2907, 2908,\nand 2909.\n\nSolar Wind\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nSolar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences.\nTotal IMF strength was fairly steady at mainly 4-5 nT, while the Bz\ncomponent varied orientations with a few periods of prolonged southward\ndirection. Solar wind speed was steady at 575 km\/s and the phi angle was\nnegative.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe CH HSS regime shows no signs of waning, so elevated speeds are\nexpected to continue into 23 Dec. Conditions are likely to become more\ndisturbed and enhanced later in the day as glancing blow CME\n(from the 20 Dec event) may arrive at Earth. CME influences are likely \nto continue into 24 Dec and wane on 25 Dec. Early model results indicate\na possible weak, glancing blow arrival of the 22 Dec CME as early as\nlate on 25 Dec.\n\nGeospace\n\n.24 hr Summary...\nThe geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in varied response to CH\nHSS effects.\n\n.Forecast...\nThe geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled most of 23\nDec as CH HSS influences continue. However, possible glancing blow CME\narrival (from 20 Dec) would likely escalate conditions to active levels,\nwith a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels. Any CME influences would\nlikely continue into 24 Dec, leading to unsettled to active conditions,\nwith a likely isolated period of G1 storm levels as the CME passage\ncontinues. Responses are expected to decline and return to quiet to\nunsettled conditions on 25 Dec. Another escalation of geomagnetic\nresponse is possible late on 25 Dec due to the proximity of another\napproaching CME (of 21 Dec) and associated effects.<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pss.swpc.noaa.gov\/\">Product Subscription Site.<\/a>&nbsp;Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov\">SWPC Help.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Dec 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary&#8230; Solar activity reached moderate levels with an isolated M-class flare. There were nine sunspot groups present on the visible disk. The main highlights were: NOAA\/SWPC Region 2918 (N20E52, Cro\/beta) &#8230; <a title=\"Quite a Forecast, Indeed!\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/2021\/12\/23\/quite-a-forecast-indeed\/\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Quite a Forecast, Indeed!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","pmpro-has-access"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2558\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/smashomash.com\/smashteam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}