So, firstly thanks to the smAsh teAm. You have been instrumental in the continuation of our content! The most recent CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have yet to be resolved in terms of trajectory (best guess is that they’ll all miss to Earth’s west). We’ve been looking at available coronagraph data, and here’s the NOAA bulletin about most recent events!
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Jan 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels following an M5/1f flare (R2-moderate radio blackouts) at 20/0601 UTC from Region 2929 (N08W79, Dao/beta). Also associated with this flare was a 10 cm radio burst (340 sfu), a Type II (est. speed 359 km/s) radio sweep, and a Type IV radio sweep. This region didn't appear to change much, but foreshortening is now inhibiting an accurate analysis of its magnetic complexity. Region 2930 (N22W80, Dao/beta) was mostly unchanged (also foreshortened), but did produce B-flare activity. Region 2933 (S22W42, Cao/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailer and was absent of significant flaring. Region 2927 (S20W73, Axx/alpha) was unremarkable and quiet. New Region 2934 (S24E77, Hsx/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was quiet and stable. The CME associated with the M1/Sf flare on 18/1744 UTC was analyzed and determined to have a possible glancing blow at Earth. CME passage is likely to occur on 22 Jan based on the speed and trajectory of the ejecta. The CME associated with the M5/1f flare was analyzed with initial findings indicating a trajectory well west of Earth. Additional analysis may be accomplished to confirm these results. A third CME was observed in STEREO coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 20/0853 UTC. Initial indications show the CME was associated with coronal dimming that occurred near Region 2933 at approximately 20/0800 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as more imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on 20-21 Jan due to the flare history of Region 2929. By 22 Jan, activity should return to very low levels as Region 2929 rotates around the western limb. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 3,170 pfu at 19/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1-Minor storm levels following the M5/1f flare mentioned above. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 20-22 Jan due to CH HSS/CME influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at S1-Minor storm levels before returning to background levels on 21-22 Jan. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CME and CH HSS influence influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 590 km/s, then decreased to average near 500 km/s. Total field strength was at 5 nT or below, while Bz had no significant southward deviations throughout the period. Phi was variable, but trended more in a negative orientation the latter half of the period. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated throughout the forecast period as combined CH HSS and CME effects taper on 20-21 Jan. An additional enhancement is possible on 22 Jan as weak, glancing blow effects arrive from the 18 Jan CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field returned to mostly quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of 20 Jan and into 21 Jan as combined CH HSS/CME influence steadily weakens. Quiet to unsettled levels should persist on 22 Jan as weak effects from the 18 Jan CME arrive.